I’m fond of saying that one of the biggest determinants of success is knowing to whom to listen. Since the dawn of the printing press information has become more and more ubiquitous in each subsequent generation. Today with the proliferation of the Internet the “problem” has surged 100-fold in under a decade.
This truely is not a problem, but a great gift–though every gift introduces new challenges. The biggest challenge is making sense of the vast quantities of information. It’s no wonder that Google now has a market cap of just under 200 Billion dollars. Helping us find the needle in the haystack is very big business.
On any topic of great interest or consequence you will see countless opinions expressed in the news, blogs, friendly conversations, etc. Your ability to discern truth and wisdom from the great flow of information is, I believe, one of the best indicators of future success in business today. I also don’t believe it is that difficult a skill to master. And it is definitely a learned skill. This challenge of information overload (at least to this degree) is something that we have only had to begin dealing with in the last decade or so. Consequently there is not a lot of emphasis placed yet on the education and training of how to more intelligently process new information.
Critical thinking, and more specifically critical listening is really the parent skill were are talking about. Critical listening is really just about judging what you hear. One of the real gifts about today’s environment is that you have access to hundreds of critical assessments on any given topic. To me that means that we are able to outsource a lot of critical thought to niche experts and opinions we never would have had access to in the past. This brings us back to the original challenge.
As a self-proclaimed armchair economist I love using the economy as an example. It is shocking to me that not once has a majority of economists been able to predict an upcomming recession. Even more amazing was that in in 2001, 95% of the top economists polled by The Economist did not forecast that upcomming recession. 95%. 95%.
I don’t know about you, but I am very interested in meeting that 5%. What I’ve discovered during a lot of contemplation is that it is less difficult than it might appear. I’ve discovered a few shortcuts if you will that have allowed me to steer clear of some bad advice.
Follow the Money
Going back to the 95% example, I don’t really believe that they are all poor economists. Most of the top folks are employed (or heavily influenced) by big companies that rely on growth to survive. What happens over time is this influence either creates pressure to look at data through rose-colored glasses. One other possibility is that people who tend to do that anyway rise to these positions precisely because of that trait.
Whatever the reason, next time you hear an “expert” deliver opinion, remember that that expert is usually being paid by someone for that opinion. I typically flat out ignore opinion offered up by someone who has something to gain from the outcome. Avoid those with an agenda.
Unbiased History
We all have our biases. The trick is to seek out people who let data override them. In the previous example, it’s one thing to listen to someone say the economy is going to tank hard if they always seem to find a reason why we are doomed. But if that same person a few years earlier called for a huge bull market, now that is someone I’m going to lend some credibility towards. When you start evaluating opinion based on this criterion, you will be amazed at just how many people fail this basic test.
Original Research
I find that the most interesting bits of information come from those that embark on self-discovery versus analysis of other’s findings. Self-discovery can come from one’s own research or reflection. It usually comes from an ability to see relationships in sets of data that others do not see. These are the people that challenge our established beliefs and are in the best position to bring us real insight.
So the next time you are making a big decision, ask yourself on what information are you basing it. Look critically at your sources. When you hear expert opinion ask yourself (or find out): Is this person benefiting from this advice? Does this person let data overcome his/her bias? Is this person parroting the same data/opinions as everyone else?
When you find these rare inidividuals that pass these tests, cherish them deeply. They are the mentors you want.
Het werk van Yesturdays voor morgen – een blik op sommige voorbeelden…
Werd getoond dit voorbeeld, via David Messer Facebook en geloof het om te zijn zeer informatief en ook het punt…